Is there really a market for a response though? Now, I'll be honest that I know very little about this market. What I do know from doing a decade of presales before covid hit, is that people who buy GPUs go for aggregate max on a big node farm. Now, most of my clients who bought GPU-heavy scale-out nodes were in the financial industry, so maybe deep learning stuff is different. Their workloads were massively parallel, and could scale out instead of needing something singularly fast.
So I guess my question is - what use case is there for a huge truck that goes 200mph and take 4 trips, when you could just buy 16 regular trucks, and move your apartment in the same amount of time at half the cost.
The exciting thing about CXL is we can start to find out if peripheral or hopefully close-networked computing fabrics can be useful & interesting, beyond the small circumstances Nvidia will offer. Having an ecosystem that everyone can participate in will let us explore. Money can't buy that. Talent can't buy that. You need to socialize to really find out the possible values.
'The street finds it's own uses for things' is the well known Gibson adage, I and typically it's a comment aimed low. But our entire era of amazing computing began with the Gang of Nine enabling lowness in a degree such that it quickly became the highest tech, the best. Sure you can still buy a mainframe & they have amazing feats but it's not where the value is, but and the value is where it is because possibility was unchained, I unleashed from corporate dominion, and spread wide. I think we can find amazing new futures with CXL & mad bandwidth connectivity.
The reason that analogy falls short is because it's easier to drive the huge truck at 200mph than it is to find 16 truck drivers. It's really neat when you figure out how to map/reduce your algorithm so you can parallelize it, but it would be even easier if you didn't even have to in the first place. And that's assuming that it is even parallelizable in the first place. Not all algorithms can be optimized like that and needs a bigger system to run on.
There are workloads that are data parallel, and scale like the GPU-heavy scale-out nodes that you describe.
The other approach, which you do when models themselves are massive, is model parallelism. You split it into multiple parts that run on different nodes.
In both cases, you need to distribute weight updates through the network although the traffic patterns can be different.
To maximize the performance in both scenarios, systems designers optimize for all-reduce and bisection bandwidth.
There are also other tricks, for example the TPUv4 ICI network is optically switched, and it is configured when a workload starts to maximize bandwidth for the requested topology ("twisting the torus" in the published paper).
Using something like Stable diffusion and generating all the frames at once (for video) as a single image. For that kind of usage one needs to have ram for the whole image. This setup could generate videos like that in the same time as I generate an image on my home computer.
I say this as an anti-GOP American who has lived a year an a half in Ukraine, has friends I currently financially support in Ukraine, and thinks Russia should be economically turned into North Korea:
Belarus, the country, is "within spitting distance" of Kiev. There has always been tight integration between their armies, as well as open borders. There have Always been Russian soldiers close to Kiev, because that's where the city is geographically. What you are doing is putting a conspiracy-spin on something that is a common occurrence.
To put this in other terms, here's what you stated: "A large number of armed Republicans have been found in the city of Crofton around Jan 6, spitting distance from the white house." Reality: The statement is true. It omits the inconvenient fact that for the last 50 year it's been a republican county with high gun ownership, and that's where they live.
There is an immense amount of propaganda from Ukraine. Ukraine is an extremely corrupt country. They are trying to clean it up, but that's not a viable task at scale. We shipped $25bil in cash there last year - much of that, went into someone's pocket. I read Ukrainian news, in Ukrainian. They constantly announce people getting arrested with millions of fresh dollars in cash. They arrested a government official who stole 18 train cars worth of humanitarian aid, and sold it at his chain of stores. Their banks officially steal money from foreigners and locals under a new asset-forfeture type of law.
Personal story:
I have some friends there and a baby who is my goddaughter. Their city got leveled, they escaped westward and now live close to Poland. The government won't let men out of the country, despite my friend having a sick wife, and a 2yo baby. I've wired about $50k over there last year, and continue to send about 1/3 of my salary this year. He rents an apartment. The cities in the west, which are fairly safe - the locals escaped to Poland, Germany, and Canada, and are collecting welfare checks triple the size of their pre-war salaries. They then rent out their apartments to refugees from the east. Rent prices are 5x what they used to be, and they're making bank on their fellow nationals who can't leave. The reason they can't leave, despite a law like that being against the constitution there? Zelensky keeps holding popular votes, and everyone votes to force men to stay in the country. Because they're making bank on the rent.
Recently, a new regulation passed, allowing the national bank to take money out of people's accounts, if they receive over $11k in a 30 day period. I wired $15k to my friend for the next 3 months of living expenses. The national bank confiscated the wire transfer, asking my friend for proof of where it came from. I had my bank send a letter saying it came from my direct-deposited salary (in America), and wrote a letter myself saying this is financial aid for my goddaughter's family. The bank refused to deposit the funds into my friend's account, and refused the request from Wells Fargo to reverse the wire. I then tried to send using paypal-xoom as it's still free for now. They're blocking transfers to Ukraine, because apparently many of their customers have had the funds confiscated, and never returned to the sender.
From what you wrote, you're on a dopamine rush, and the Ukrainians are infallible heroes. I've lived in Moscow for 4 years for work, I've lived in Ukraine for almost two. I have professional contacts and friends in both places. The only difference between the people in charge of Ukraine, and the people in charge of Russia, is Ukraine doesn't have the military to go threaten the world - and if they did, they would. And yes, there are lots of nazis there, and they do celebrate nazis on public media. Less than we do stateside, but that's a stretch of truth, not a lie from Putler. Step back, analyze the situation with logic, and don't let your feelings guide your beliefs. Otherwise, you're the same as the nutjob republicans, just have different opinions.
From what you wrote, you think because you've spent a few years living in Russia that it makes you an expert on the realities of international relations instead of a common parrot.
You've written a large wall of text to debate something that was already settled as fact in February 2022. Did you actually forget that this wasn't a "common occurence?" Russia literally did invade Kyiv from Belarus. I've watched the Russian preparations for war unfold since October 2021.[0][1] The Belarusian military exercises were a pretext for military invasion, indisputable after-the-fact now. They shipped their heavy materiel to the border, held some exercises, and then immediately after invaded from Belarusian territory. Please point me to your public explanation of the issues back then.
Every country has corruption. Ukraine certainly does, just many countries with weaker institutions the world over: India, Hungary, Serbia, Brazil, Turkey, etc. It is not an excuse for invasion and the slaughter of tens of thousands of humans.
You're also tangentially inserting a debate about the validity of martial law requiring men to stay to defend their country from invasion, missiles, and slaughter, which most countries and countrymen would support. (horrendously suggesting the reason is rents??)
Lastly, let me remind you that yesterday, today, and tomorrow, Russia keeps marching onto new Ukrainian cities, destroying infrastructure and human beings with artillery and missiles, shooting people that resist a Russian army come to take over their land. And it keeps happening because enough people like you carry water for their garbage excuses.
Since you’re Serbian and clearly referring to Kosovo…
How about a war costing 500 civilian lives, with no land conquest by the perpetrator (NATO countries), so that in a few months you can bring an end to the systematic campaign of terror, including murders, rapes, and arsons in which over 13k people were killed or missing during the two year conflict. The Serb forces caused the displacement of between 1.2 million to 1.45 million Kosovo Albanians.
Ya post-facto seems like a trolley problem with a better outcome than your desired alternative of thousands of more dead.
Serbia has never come to terms with how much death and destruction they caused in the 90s to their neighbors. Sad to see them still support other countries doing the same. This attitude will hopefully not lead again to the further killing of your neighbors and same international shameful pariah that Russia is experiencing.
The KLA is a terrorist group, and the last time some terrorists did something in USA (although the number of dead civilians was ~6x higher), the USA decided to attack and occupy afghanistan for 20 years.... just because some saudis couldn't fly a plane. Imagine mexican terrorist groups killing civilians in mexico for years, usa sending the army in to fix the problem, and then russia nuking the hell out of USA because of the anti terrorist actions.
First, I'm not going to click on your twitter links or know what they are, because like those trumpers I just made fun of, you seem to think twitter is some kind of a source of something.
Second, there is no martial law requiring men to defend their country right now, and there is no mass mobilization. Here is what there is, and I actually know and skype with people who this has happened to. There are assholes walking the streets and grocery stores, hunting men. When they find you, they lock you up in a room for a day. During that day, they ask you for increasing amounts of cash to let you out. If you are still there at the end of the day, congratulations, you are now in the army. This is reality.
What makes me an expert, compared to someone like yourself who has not been to either country, and gets his opinions from random twitter accounts and one-sided news, is my parents escaped the USSR, I have lived and worked in both countries, and I have and currently do, talk almost daily to people I know in both countries.
>It is not an excuse for invasion ... lastly, let me remind you that yesterday, today, and tomorrow
I am not sure to whom you are replying. try reading what I wrote, and replying to that. your little rant seems unrelated to the conversation.
>I've watched the Russian preparations for war unfold since October 2021.
you haven't watched anything. you have watched twitter clips from random people, while sitting on your couch, and selecting just the news you want to read, translated into your language by someone. the parrot, is literally you. I am contributing first hand personal experience from myself, and people I actively talk to on the ground in both places. you don't want to read it? you seem to not have. then don't reply to the voices making up a strawman in your head. if you don't read, you can't reply to what's written.
if a quarter of a book page is "a wall of text" to you, this actually explains a lot.
compared to someone like yourself who has not been to either country,
You don't know anything at all about this person.
And gets his opinions from random twitter accounts and one-sided news,
Pure ad-hominem and absolutely against site guidelines.
What makes me an expert ... is my parents escaped the USSR, I have lived and worked in both countries, and I have and currently do, talk almost daily to people I know in both countries.
This background is sufficient to make you informed; but it doesn't make you an "expert" about anything.
>You don't know anything at all about this person.
I know what he wrote. No personal experience, no credible sources, his reply was a bunch of twitter links. As such, all I do know about this person, is he has no personal experience with the matter, as per his comment.
>Pure ad-hominem and absolutely against site guidelines.
He literally keeps posting one-side of the news, and random twitter links. If you feel attacked by facts, it's time to go vote for trump. stating facts, is not against site rules. In addition - you're not in charge of site rules, and you should eff off with your spam.
> it doesn't make you an "expert" about anything
and as I've said to the other guy, you should read the thing to which you are replying instead of making up a strawman. nowhere did I say I'm an expert at anything. I shared rare personal experience so people can form more balanced opinions, based on extra information.
Half of my family grew up in Kyiv Russian-Ukrainian, experienced other Russian atrocities, or is still there under duress like my uncle’s family. So you’re already blatantly wrong.
Your entire framing is about low level random anecdotal details instead of the actual high level issues, because you have minimal personal experience on the ground yet entirely ignorant on history or geopolitical reality.
The only difference between the people in charge of Ukraine, and the people in charge of Russia, is Ukraine doesn't have the military to go threaten the world - and if they did, they would.
I don't buy this assessment at a all.
Based on everything from their origins, to their voluminous public statements, to their actions, to their deportment and vibe -- not to mention the basic historical record of the two countries -- there's an astronomical difference of mindset between Putin and Zelensky, and between their respective supporters. I'd go into more detail ... but the other half of your statement is basically vacuous, so why bother? (I mean yeah, I suppose Ukraine would carry itself with more swagger if it had nuclear weapons; so would Fiji or Mexico).
Oh, and then there's this statement:
What you are doing is putting a conspiracy-spin on something that is a common occurrence.
I'm not sure what innuendo you're making here, but since you're apparently referring to the massive pre-invasion mobilization -- to say it was "a common occurrence", or compares to a bunch of GOP apparatchiks gathering in Crofton -- is just too bizarre for words.
So, I will admit - my Ukraine-experience-based Opinion about Ukraine may be wrong. It is my opinion. Have you, um, been there, not like a tourist? Like rented an apartment, dealt with their government offices and low level officials? How about just managers and people in offices and on the street?
"to their voluminous public statements" - I'm sorry - what??? My comment was literally about many of their public statements being propaganda, and your reply is... based on their public statements? What do you think about China's public statements that American soldiers brought covid to China?
The people who get in power there, are mostly toxic pieces of power tripping corrupt crap. You should at least - if you're only basing your experience on reading internet news while sitting on your couch - look into the history of their police and politicians and officials. They execute people or lock them away for life when they get in the way. They literally beat gay people to death for holding hands - something I've personally watched. They are very close to that same drunken macho trash that is Russians.
That, sir, is my opinion. I am not asking you to buy that assesment, and I'm not here to convince a random internet stranger of jack. The whole purpose of my post, is so people like you, who form strong opinions based only on things you Chose yourself to read, step back and realize you're behaving just like the redneck self-brainwashing crap taking over this country.
>I'm not sure what innuendo
The innuendo is not there. The accusation that someone took a normal event and spun it to keep themselves angry, and is trying to spread that bs on the internet, is there, in plain text.
>gathering in Crofton
no one gathered anywhere. that was literally the whole point of that simple comparison paragraph. now if someone were to spin it as a gathering, that would be a bad actor spreading conspiracy theories. Get it now? of course you don't.
Have a good life buddy. bbye, and enjoy your velcro shoes. that's another one you won't get, and the cause for not getting it, is the cause of the velcro shoes.
Have you, um, been there, not like a tourist? Like rented an apartment, dealt with their government offices and low level officials?
If you only knew, comrade. If you only knew.
But you don't, and by this point you've adeptly demonstrated your behavioral tendencies. This combination of profound intellectually dishonesty and intentional baiting and button-pushing has no place on HN. You bore us, and will have to take your game elsewhere.
Prices are not lower in Europe. I've lived in 5 countries in Europe. I paid about 10EUR in France for the same plan I have in the US on Tello for $7.
What we do have, is the availability of more expensive plans and companies.
It's the same argument I keep hearing people make about "dur dur college is expensive in the states." It's not. 2 years of community college for gen-eds, 2 years state school, BS costs $25k over 4 years, and if you finish in 3, it costs less. You can also take college courses or get a full year of college credits in high school if you study. You can get a bachelor's for under $20k total from a good state school. But yes, my little brother spent 40k/year and has 6-figure debt and a 5-figure salary.
Stupid people, make stupid choices. In the land of the free, we make the guidance and information available, and let them fail. Good.
Norway is sparely populated? That country the size of Montana (one of many states), with five times the population? Dare I say, have you ever Driven across the US?
> Prices are not lower in Europe. I've lived in 5 countries in Europe. I paid about 10EUR in France for the same plan I have in the US on Tello for $7.
I don't believe you. Find me any plan in the USA that is cheaper than what can be had in France. And I won't even bring up how terrible mobile coverage is in the USA, even in big cities.
> Dare I say, have you ever Driven across the US?
Yep, the long way (four days virtually nonstop) and the slow way (a couple months).
Loaning $160K to someone who was unlikely to be able to pay that back was also a stupid mistake, no? Given that the debt is non-dischargeable not everyone is allowed to fail.
those are contradictory statements. all student loans are eventually payed back. giving a zero-risk loan that is guaranteed to be payed back, with no chance of losing the money, and 100% chance of making money via interest is not a mistake for a bank. the only person failing is the one who destroys their life by taking the loan.
since you like throwing out an unfounded "stupid" unlike my "founded stupid," let me also let you know about how loans work, since you don't, but are opinionated on the subject on which you lack knowledge. Only about 10k/year is a direct loan to the student. The rest need a cosigner who passes a credit check.
not everyone is allowed to fail. the banks for example are not. it appears people who failed basic civics were also allowed to pass high school.
So you are suggesting that lending money to someone where prospective income is unlikely to cover principal and interest is not stupid because the creditors (who may be banks) have been able to structure the system that they won’t ever face the consequences of their decisions?
No, I am not suggesting the non-existent strawman you made up where people don't eventually repay their non-forgivable loans. Yes, I am suggesting that taking on a guaranteed profit with zero risk is not stupid. I am not sure what you don't understand about that.
I’m suggesting that making loans to people who can’t reasonably be expected to pay shouldn’t be the business of banks. Banks making loans to people who can’t pay is just charity with extra steps.
Making loans to people who are reasonably likely to pay the loan back used to be the primary business of banks. I guess you are correct and I don’t understand why banks are now in the business of making loans to people who can’t pay.
you keep making up that strawman "making loans to people who can't pay." they literally pay, and they literally always pay, by the definition of the phrase "unforgivable loan." It is not the bank's job to make sure you take out a loan and live comfortably, instead of taking out a loan and have to sleep on a bunk bed with a roomate for a decade, while eating lentils and the cheapest of ground beef.
I'm not going to bother reading your reply, because you seem to regurgitate the same thing over and over again, without understanding that what you are saying is factually wrong. All I can say is, good luck in life without comprehension of simple things. You're gonna need it.
There's a special place in hell for the Vatican. Pedo gay sex galore aside, the entire multi-billion dollar scammer organization, is disgusting. Went to visit while flying through. There's a long line in the square, it's sun-baking weather outside. They have the little roof-covered column things on the side, but the line is in the middle. No little tents over the line area - go ahead and stand there for 3 hours, at the zenith, in the middle of summer.
Well, burns and skin cancer, like tears inside the butt, bring you closer to god, as mother teresa always preached while on the scammin' trail, so all good - right? Nope, it's a sales tool. For a mere 300EUR you can bypass that line, and they have extremely rude and pushy sales people approach you multiple times as you suffer.
I gave up after 10 minutes. I took a selfie at their post office, now have a better story to tell, and my man-man virginity preserved. Although I probably would have been safe inside there, as I am an adult.
The special place in hell for that wiki editor, is called The Vatican. That whole area, the organization, and the people in it, are the definition of true and pure evil.
They key is, the payment processor would not know, because they should not have the ability to ask. What's needed here, is a replacement for cash. Nothing more, nothing less. The digital dollar wallet, with a number and a passcode that only you have. And you can send that to another wallet number. That is the scope, and the complete scope. Bitcoin w/o the blockchain. This should be provided by a government, not a bank or a payment processor, and should be free - systems paid for by how we pay to mint physical money.
Fun story about the electronic toll pass, which I refuse to use and as a result get to places slower by never taking a toll road, in over 20 years.
We had tolls. You throw a couple of quarters in, and you go on your way. They were replaced by the electronic toll tag. Which is linked to your name, your credit card, and keeps a timestamped transaction history, forever.
There was a custody battle, and the divorced husband got the kids. The court looked at the wife's toll records, showing she comes home from work real late, and that would impact the quality of life for kids. Boy, I bet she never thought she'd lose her kids by using a toll tag. I bet she did think after the divorce she'd have to start coming home earlier and probably set it up with her manager. We'll never know.
Thing is, it should have been an anonymous electronic RFID wallet you reload, to replace the function of the quarter coin, and it became a government tracking device attached to your car.
Now answer me this: is your ISP responsible for you downloading that torrent full of child porn? Well, that's probably a bad example. Is Cisco, the maker of the network switch that ISP uses, legally responsible for it?
> The court looked at the wife's toll records, showing she comes home from work real late, and that would impact the quality of life for kids. Boy, I bet she never thought she'd lose her kids by using a toll tag.
Do you have a source for that? Google wasn't being helpful.
This got me interested as well. I couldn't find the specific incident they were referring to with a brief search, but I did find this, which implies that toll data can be and has been used in child custody disputes, etc: https://familylawyermagazine.com/articles/i-pass-tollway-dat...
I unfortunately do not, as this was over 20 years ago. I guess "trust me" that it happened, because - again "trust me" - this was the thing that over 20 years ago got me to never take another toll road. I did give google a go as well, and after a full 45 seconds could not find it.
"many of the requests for I-Pass records in civil matters were divorce cases"
This is from the first search result linked in the other reply.
"In child custody disputes, a parent who believes the other parent is not fulfilling their parental duties may use this data to establish the parent is not caring for the child. A parent may use the data to establish the other is not with the child, but instead on the road headed to a different location, such as a race track. The parent who believes the other is not meeting their obligations may be able to use this information during custody litigation or as support for a modification to an existing agreement"
"“We routinely utilize I-Pass records in discovery,” says Maureen A. Gorman, a divorce litigator at my Chicago law firm."
Now, let me spread some more anger, because let's face it, people love being angry. Road tolls were supposed to be temporary, to finance building the roads. They were never supposed to stay permanent. Toll revenue is more than road maintenance. In fact, over 50% of toll revenue, is redirected to other uses, and increases close to 100% per decade. Some of it is used for mass transit - so people in cars, pay for people on the subway. Many toll roads (and city parking meters, and red light and speed cameras) are run by private companies, with taxpayer-paid city staff enforcing that private corporation's profit.
What can you do? Only thing I've found is to not participate, at a great inconvenience to yourself. No, I don't use city parking meters. I pay way, way more, for private parking - although I'm only in a car a few weeks per year, usually in a work-paid rental. The benefit - for me - is to fall asleep fast, without laying there for hours in the dark getting more and more pissed off at things I can't fix.
honestly I hope not long. I could not care less about what random people like or dislike, what they comment on videos, or anything else. what's next is a great feature since I put on a song and it plays something similar next. a TV channel is the perfect use case for youtube, where instead of selecting a channel like on TV, you select a channel by type of video you first play.
sidenote: I had no idea youtube had likes or dislikes until I read this post. I have however, used youtube to, you know, play a video and look at that video. I have zero idea about other components of the site, outside of the video playing, and a list of what's next. I've used youtube since before it was owned by google.
now I don't know if I'm the target demographic, but it seems to me like youtube is doing the right thing and focusing on it's core feature while removing screen spam. and w/ ublock, I haven't seen an ad on there in a decade.
about a decade ago, purchased a home half a mile away from a river. For the last 50 years, the river bank has been has been slowly moving outwards out due to erosion. I bought the house for a million, it's now worth two.
Last year, a thousand houses a few miles downstream fell into the water. This year, my insurance company cancelled my coverage, and I can't find anyone else who will insure me. What I'd like is for premiums to be raised for people who bought their homes in a safe area, to pay me my million dollars in profit when my house falls into the watter. This is my Current home. Am I supposed to just abandon it because no one will buy it?
So, the answer to your question, is yes. Home prices go up and down. Yours is now worth zero because of your bad decision. It is not the job of other people, to pay you for your mistake.
they should not. the fact that you did not understand this is what I was saying, suggests a lack of practice in social interaction. now this is not meant as a personal attack. think of it like this: you are teaching an arithmetic class - something for which fully functional members of society need to have the skill. you explain that 5+2*2=9. someone corrects you that it is in fact 14. what would you suggest this person do?
this also applies to basic language skills. i suggest that whatever advice you have for the previous hypothetical person, you apply to basic social interaction in your own life.
but maybe I'm wrong, and you did not read the comment to which I was replying. in that case, I suggest that when you read a comment, you should see the comment it's rebutting, prior to posting yours. this also, is a basic social skill.
I'll start you off: I do not own a house at all as I travel internationally and move around too much to stay in one place over a few years. I would also never purchase one in a risk zone, since there are thousands of others available w/o the risk, and they don't cost more.
Things that don't kill you make you weaker. The other saying only applies to mental hurt, not physical.
From my experience, there's nothing you can really do to fix this beyond 'live a normal healthy life, and let it heal itself, slowly, and not fully.'
I worked at a hospital (in IT) during covid, had to be onsite a couple of days a week. lots of people dying all around, n95 all day, etc. not a problem. As I settled in, I realized my manager, and the director, were absolutely toxic people on a powertrip. they didn't care if you said "this is likely to bring down random hospital applications, we need to do it this other way." 2 stars on glassdoor, cowboy hats all around, staff morale not present. they'd come up with technical ideas on how to do something, despite being barely technical people. telling them how to do, say a data migration online, because you're an SME who's been doing it for almost 30 years is a personal challenge, and you get crapped on, overruled, and put in your place. Lots of downtime, lots of patients affected, yet they report literal fake status reports up the chain and generalize-away every issue to the point that the generic statement hides the issue.
I started getting heartburn during the day. Then I started getting hearburn in the morning as my alarm rang. Then I started waking up 5min before the alarm rang, with heartburn, and teenager zits on my face at mid-life. Morning was now a cup of baking soda water instead of coffee. ion pump blockers. more baking soda.
after 6 months, the manager ordered me to execute a migration plan that would shave off 2 days from a year-long plan. I made a nice writeup stating we need to monitor sockets on the array a few days to make sure people aren't actively using the data she want's to trash. Last time she had me do this, she asked over email, and it brought down a whole clinic that was using a share she thought was unused. This time, I was asked not over email, but with a call from her cell phone, to my cell phone.
I said no problem, send me an email or type it in chat, and I'll do it despite the high risk. I was of course fired 5 days later, but already had a new fully remote job, which I started 5 days earlier (lol).
The point of the story is - the stomach issue didn't go away. 3 years later, it's still there. It's much less, but that last/final bit, where a couple of times a year I need ion blockers for 2 weeks, and maybe one day a week I still need to start w/ baking soda water - that's probably there to stay. I eat very healty, lots of fiber, I'm fit. That 6 months of acidic people did damage that a middle-aged body can't heal all the way.
I am about five years out from a similar situation, so let me give you a glimmer of hope: I did get better, very slowly. I wish I could say why, I’ve obviously tried all sorts of things and also a lot of life has happened between then and now, but _don’t give up hope_
And best of luck, I suspect you really helped some patients at your former job relative to someone who would have been less conscientious. Maybe even me, we’ll never know!
I'll put it to you this way: all the militaries of all the countries in everything they do, are responsible for 6% of the CO2 emissions. I'll let you figure out why explosions alone were not mentioned at all.
I think pollution from warhead explosions is still negligible compared with pollution from fires or created from the emissions in reconstruction destroyed buildings or perhaps even the supply chain of delivering the warhead. The US and China military transport emissions probably dwarf everything.
The assumption that military activity, which is a subset of any nations economy and mostly stationary in any case but a world war, would not be dwarfed by the majority of civilian activity like industrial activity and trade routes, is simply absurd.
There is nothing about “military engines” or “military supply routes” or “military explosions” that leads anyone to believe their impact would be any worse than their civilian equivalents, and even if they were, you still have to prove that they are so much worse that even their limited activity compared to the normal economy must be given priority attention.
The burden of proof is on the one making the claim, not everyone else.
It's a fair argument, an active war is more intensive on emissions (tanks, trucks, planes, trains if not electrified need fuel, and especially older Soviet-era models aren't known for the fuel or emission efficiency).
Expand your search, and be amazed by how many wars are and have been fought, always, continuously, and forever.
When you're done with that search, look up volcano explosions on land and under the sea, and compare them to the explosive power of a missle.
When you have a bleeding cow, you can solve the bleeding issue and keep the cow alive, while completely ignoring the mosquitoes "relentlessly draining" its blood.
I'll first admit you likely know way more than I about this. So this is not an attack on your statements, but an ask for clarification.
>replacing true/false with probabilities does a great job of this ... people came up with all kinds of alternative systems to avoid dealing with probability
a probability is a number between 0 and 1, instead of either 0 or 1. a number between 0 and 1, instead of 0 and 1, is called fuzzy logic.
In addition to the other replies here, one fundamental difference between probabilistic and fuzzy logic is that fuzzy logic is truth functional and probabilistic logic isn't. Truth functional means, for instance, that if we know the (numerical) truth values of the propositions A and of B then we also know the (numerical) truth values of the propositions (A and B), (A or B), and so on. In probabilistic logic this does not hold. That is, P(A and B) is not fully determined by P(A) and P(B). If A and B are independent, we have P(A and B) = P(A)P(B), but in general we only know that P(A)+P(B)-1 <= P(A and B) <= min(P(A),P(B)). I also believe there's no generally accepted notion of conditioning in fuzzy logic, whereas conditioning is crucial in any probabilistic approach, see e.g. Bayes' theorem.
Truth functionality always struck me as a bodge in fuzzy logic, because you get to choose the implementation of (A and B) fairly arbitrarily. You're getting to choose some mix that lets you pretend the degree of dependence between the variables doesn't matter. It's a useful engineering hack, but a hack nonetheless.
> so I'm really lost about what you're saying here.
Numeric representation may be the same[0], but the rules of how to do math on them, and what that math means, are different.
--
[0] - AFAIK dealing with Bayesian math, it's usually more useful to take a logarithm of all probabilities, so you can add them instead of multiplying. This translation expands the range from <0, 1> to <-infinity, +infinity>, and incidentally makes it clear why some people say that "zero and one are not probabilities".
The 0..1 of fuzzy logic isn't the 0..1 of probability. When, in fuzzy logic, you say "X is true to degree 0.7" you are not saying "70% of the time, X is true" or "70% of samples display X"[0]. You are saying that the state you observe conforms to X by 70%. You can, at the same time, say "Y is true to degree 0.4". X and Y are allowed be somewhat contradictory: there's no need for their degrees to sum to 1.
[0] Not necessarily. You might choose to measure X that way, but it's not required.
Fuzzy logic deals with degrees/scores, probability theory deals with how likely something is.
When you say that "The hotel room is 75% clean", that's a degree. It means a room that's not as clean as a "90% clean" hotel room, but definitely cleaner than a "50% clean" hotel room on some kind of cleanliness scale that you have. You need a scale because the boundary between clean and unclean is not sharp, but fuzzy. Fuzzy logic gives you tools to construct well-behaved scales for logical combinations of variables that already have scales associated with them. E.g. if you have a scale for a motorcycle being loud and a scale for a motorcycle being expensive (both fuzzy concepts), the tools of fuzzy logic can e.g. give you a scale for loud OR expensive.
In contrast, when you say that "The hotel room is clean with probability 75%", you're reasoning about how likely it is that the room is clean under uncertainty. Maybe the cleaners only work 3 out of 4 days, and you're unsure what day it is. But these are not degrees of cleanliness: if you say that a room has a 75% chance of being clean you're not claiming that it's cleaner than some other room that has a 50% chance of being clean.
The concepts involved in probability need not be fuzzy, or even measured on a scale. E.g. when one says "there's a 75% chance that the car repair will cost more than $50", there is no fuzziness involved in whether the repair costs more than $50 or not: in the end, you'll get a bill, and it will state a number that is unambiguously either above $50 or not above $50, a pure binary variable, no scales involved.
It is common to saysthat the 'truthiness' of (a and b), is the minimum truthiness of a and b. Or becomes a maximum, not becomes 1 - truthiness.
Then normal predicate logic works by combining these rules the usual way. E.g. (a implies b) becomes b or not a, which is max(b, 1-a).
Basyan probability is much more sophisticated, but also more difficult to calculate.
Beyond the already well explained aspects of truth-functionality, you're thinking of t-norm fuzzy logic (basically the only one actually still studied today). There were other kinds.
I believe fuzzy logic had its own axioms which aren't the axioms of propositional logic extended to probabilities. So the representations look similar but are manipulated differently.
IIRC, “fuzzy logic” is actually a class that includes all generalizations of crisp binary logic to continuous values over [0,1] with operators meeting a set of definitions which basically boil down to “reduces to crisp logic when the input values are constrained to 0 and 1”, so that Bayesian logic is a fuzzy logic.
The Zadeh operators in particular I remember being constructed, or at keast rationalized, as ways to combine the degree of truth of propositions as distinct from the probability of truth of uncertain proposition. But I think interest in the kind of epistemic differences in alternative extensions to propositional logic faded with the lack of a practical need in terms of computational efficiency to avoid Bayesian probability (and I think there was also a separate philosophical battle and the side in favor of “Bayesianism is the only meaningful extension of propositional logic” was winning that battle when the computational problems were resolved, which helped sweep aside the alternatives.)
> For example, in Bayesian logic: x AND y is xy, x OR y is x + y - xy
No it isn't. P(x AND y) = P(x)P(y) only in the special case where x and y are independent. Unlike fuzzy logic, probabilistic logic is not truth functional.
> No it isn’t. P(x AND y) = P(x)P(y) only if x and y are independent.
You are obviously correct, and I shouldn’t post when I should be sleeping.
> Unlike fuzzy logic, probabilistic logic is not truth functional.
Its been a long time since I had much engagement with fuzzy logic, but I distinctly remember it being constructed as a class such that Bayesian probability was a fuzzy logic, though the others of interest were much simpler. But that may be as wrong as the other part of that post...
So I guess my question is - what use case is there for a huge truck that goes 200mph and take 4 trips, when you could just buy 16 regular trucks, and move your apartment in the same amount of time at half the cost.