>The Strait of Hormuz is, basically not a big deal unless you're driving your big ole' truck
Are you serious? Even ignoring the other things that ship through there, a significant disruption to global energy supply is significant to most people. If you're not driving a truck, you're probably using goods that contain plastic or took energy to produce or were moved from one place to another in fuel-powered vehicles. If, somehow, you're not, you're probably using services that are.
The best course of action now is to spend less time criticizing the United States and more time working with the United States, sending assets, military capabilities (if able), or at least providing political and diplomatic support &c. to stop the Iranians.
The world let this disease (IRGC) fester in the region for too long, and now because of that the fix is going to require significant pain. The IRGC in its current form has run its course and will not be allowed to threaten American interests, allied interests (whether that's Israel, UAE, Saudi Arabia, or otherwise), and they will not be permitted to build a nuclear weapon or threaten global trade.
So the best thing the rest of the world could do is send their own people to die because the US keeps bashing its head against a wall here since the 50s?
What's your sales pitch exactly for how that's the best thing for the non-US rest-of-the-world? What's the US's post-WWII track record, success-wise, in regime-change foreign wars, how much would you trust the US on this one?
Well they don’t have to, but we aren’t going to let Iran obtain a nuclear weapon or build up such a missile and drone stockpile that they could then threaten and attack their Gulf neighbors and implement restrictions maritime trade, which they were likely to do, hence the build up.
> What's your sales pitch exactly for how that's the best thing for the non-US rest-of-the-world? What's the US's post-WWII track record, success-wise, in regime-change foreign wars, how much would you trust the US on this one?
Honestly not all that bad for the US.
Korea - we stopped the North Koreans from taking over the entire peninsula. It’s China and Russia’s fault that the hell hole we know as North Korea exists today.
Vietnam - unnecessary war, but we won the peace.
Panama - took out Noriega
Desert Storm - stopped Saddam and kicked his thugs out of Iraq.
Serbia and Bosnia - NATO campaign. I’m personally a little unsure if the results were good or not but I understand we collectively stopped a genocide.
Afghanistan - we tried our best and made some mistakes along the way. Eventually got Bin Laden though. Too bad the rest of the world didn’t help. Now we’re seeing a massive regression in women’s rights there.
Iraq - probably not worth the money, but Iraq went from a brutal dictatorship under Saddam to a much more stable and peaceful country with a Parliament.
Venezuela - Took out Maduro with no losses.
Iran - TBD on the long term but we’ve stopped the IRGC buildup and at least bought time to figure out what to do.
The rest of the world stands on the sidelines and complains and complains yet the United States actually has the balls and will to do things. We aren’t perfect, but without US military action or at least the threat the world would be much more dangerous and much worse off. China sure as hell isn’t going to send troops to liberate Kuwait. Europe doesn’t have the military capability to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons and exerting a stranglehold on a large chunk of global oil supply.
I’m struggling to understand what this spin is even supposed to mean?
> Afghanistan - we tried our best and made some mistakes along the way. Eventually got Bin Laden though. *Too bad the rest of the world didn’t help.* Now we’re seeing a massive regression in women’s rights there.
Why are you lying about this?
> At its peak between 2010 and 2012, ISAF had 400 military bases throughout Afghanistan (compared to 300 for the ANSF) and roughly 130,000 troops.[7] Forty-two countries contributed troops to ISAF, including all 30 members of NATO.
> I’m struggling to understand what this spin is even supposed to mean?
Are you unfamiliar with the term? In the case of Vietnam we “lost” the war, yet today we have pretty strong and good relations with Vietnam. Hence we won the peace.
> Why are you lying about this?
I have a different perspective, but that doesn’t mean I’m lying.
Of course many countries contributed in various ways to Afghanistan, and as a former member of US military I have incredible respect for our friends and allies and still do today. But at the end of the day the vast majority of the manpower, cost, and equipment was American and the country could not be won solely on military power alone and needed much more support diplomatically, politically, economically, and in terms of aid.
The other problem with your argument is if you claim that Afghanistan was an American failure it contradicts your assertion and instead everyone failed, except that the US contributed the most. You can’t have it both ways.
Hate to break it to you, but the IRGC isn't going anywhere.
The reason nobody was dumb enough to attack them before is that it's an unwinnable conflict. They don't need a lot to close the Strait of Hormuz, a few guys rolling mines off a beach would do that. And they have a lot more, like missiles and drones to do damage at a distance too.
And it's a regime that has at least a million loyal fanatics ready to fight for it (the Basij, the org that did unarmed meat waves against Iraq to defend the regime). So any invasion is an absurd proposition.
So what, the hope is that the theocratic kleptocracy will give up? Not even a child could be so naive. They literally believe in martyrdom, whacking a few of the top dogs means nothing.
It's like the Kims, nobody can unseat them. Only this is far worse, because Iran has the leverage of Hormuz, and it knows it can wait - because they don't care about the people - while the US and global economy suffer until they fold. Especially with midterm elections coming, the US will fold.
> Especially with midterm elections coming, the US will fold.
These are the kinds of misunderstandings that are disappointing to see. There is no disagreement here amongst the political class. It is political theater for votes. Apparently you’re susceptible to the marketing.
We don’t need to invade Iran. We just keep the Strait closed since we control it and then Iran’s economy simply fails and the worst thing that happens for America is higher prices. But we can handle that.
Yes I'm rather serious. For the US it's not a big deal (again unless you're driving one of those giant trucks where you're spending $300 to fill up, not my problem). Are $5 gas prices great? Not really, but is it a catastrophe? No, far from it. We have dealt with high gas prices before and we'll see high gas prices again. We just learn to live with it and find other ways to get efficient or whatever we need to do.
Some Americans need to have their understanding of the world checked. If you think high gas prices are the end of the world, just wait until we have a real problem. Are we going to be incapable of fighting a war because Netflix and Pepsi prices went up or it's too expensive to coal roll down the highway?
Separately as someone who supports both Ukraine and the US and taking down the Iranians it's amusing to see each political tribe get mad about gas prices as it is convenient for them. When Russia invaded Ukraine, MAGA was screaming from the rooftops and putting Joe Biden "I did that" stickers on gas pumps. Now that we're taking on the Iranians all of the commies are doing the same thing (aren't gas prices good anyway since we need to do something about global warming?). Neither side of populist is worthy of serious consideration. Stay the course, whether that's supporting high gas prices because of Russia or because of Iran.
The US does not exist in a vacuum. Cuba just ran out of fuel. These things have cascading effects. Even if you do believe the U.S. exists in a vacuum and you don’t drive a big truck, there are still obvious effects. Spirit airlines went bankrupt, for one. Will this be a global catastrophe? I hope not, but it could be if we’re unlucky.
It won’t be a global catastrophe but if folks around the world think it will be they better figure out how to stop the IRGC and get the Iranians to knock it off. Otherwise we will just keep the Strait closed and deal with it. Don’t forget, Iran is the one making and selling drones for Putin to bomb innocent Ukrainians. That alone is a good enough reason to bomb their military capabilities.
Cuba ran out of fuel because we took out their thug partner in Maduro. If they wanted to drop the whole authoritarian communist dictatorship stuff and their involvement in the disaster that became Venezuela and partnering with the Russians then they'll be better off.
Why would they stop the IRGC? This disaster is solely caused by the USA, they'd figure out how to stop the USA. Or switch to a lot more renewable power. Don't forget the USA is the one who is attacking ships who cross through the strait - Iran is only shooting American ships, which is reasonable since America started a war with them, America is shooting all other ships because it wants the whole world to suffer.
Since when is it acceptable to invade another country just for being communist or a dictatorship? Conventionally it's up to the people in those countries to overthrow a dictator. Other countries only get involved if the dictator attacks them (like the USA dictator did).
You're right, ever since we developed trucks, trains, and ships that run on pure atmospheric air, we haven't had to worry about pesky price fluctuations on every physical object that we buy or sell!
Yes, and will continue to do so even if it’s at higher prices. What in the world do you think is going on here? Do you think the US is going to run out of food or something because prices are a little higher?
We’ll be alright. We handled it in 2022 when Russia (who is helped and supported by Iran by the way) invaded Ukraine. The world didn’t end when gas prices were crazy high then, we just kept chugging along.
$100 is way too much. Maybe $5 to get people to spend 30 seconds on google to solve the easy problems instead of calling. But I wonder if even that would be enough to significantly incentivize claiming everything is intended behavior / user error just for another revenue stream.
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