"Kreuz, who typically enjoyed drinking 17 beers a day, was a little groggy, and on hearing this, grabbed his suitcase, got off the plane, went through customs, jumped in a cab and asked the driver to take him to the city."
My takeaway from the article was don't drink 17 beers a day
Everyone and their dog is over-leveraged to the gills. The way things are with credit card debt, mortgages, corporate debt etc, it looks like we can't really raise interest rates in the next..ever.
I just want to say thank you for putting this together as a free resource. Clearly a lot of effort went into this (and you all are making it better over time)
This is interesting but he kind of jumps all over the place; it strikes me more as a brain dump of ideas and hypotheses.
There are a few areas where he’s playing pretty fast and loose with the facts, too. For example: NYC has way more homeless people than SF, but they aren’t as visible because under city law, the city is required to provide shelter to all of them. It has nothing to do with the weather, and in that sense NYC is way nicer to its homeless than SF.
He didn't, actually. Clearly explaining is "Amazon (edit: I originally mistakenly said Google)". That way people who don't read to the bottom of the thread can figure out what happened... right now it looks like rafaelc has a nonsensical complaint, if you stop reading at his comment.
There are two major levers to recover from a down turn - monetary policy and fiscal policy. In the last downturn, 2008, both were heavily pulled - most people forget this but monetary policy was (rightly in hindsight) a near instant drop and fiscal policy was all the hundred billion programs like TARP.
Raising rates in good times means more of a lever to pull in bad times. Letting the credit bubble continue to inflate, while keeping rates arbitrarily low to let a bull market run for benefiting the wealthiest, makes little sense historically.
I'm sticking around for the next hour and happy to answer questions related to the investment/decision making process for a venture capitalist (or from the perspective of an angel investor or founder CEO, which I've also been)
Edit: (Written in conjunction with the Silicon Valley Historical Association)