Poker players use “pot odds”.

The odds of winning a hand with a future card in order to estimate the call's expected value.

Pot odds are just the ratio of the current bet to size of the pot.

If you have not yet made your hand (e.g. only 4 spades) then you consider your drawing odds, which is the chance of making your hand.

But say there is a pair on the board. Then you need to consider the probability that your opponent has or will make a full house, which would beat your flush if you were to hit. Likewise the probability that someone will have a higher flush than you.

Analyzing this in aggregate is what gives you the expected value, which is what poker players consider.

If you are simply playing a cash game with unlimited buy-ins. Then assuming your overall bankroll is sufficient, you will always make plays with positive expected value, even with high variance, because it is a continuous game and you expect the total return to be positive over sufficient iterations.

If you are playing a tournament with a set number of places in the money, then you need to take into account the variance as well as the expected return because it is an episodic game and the types of plays you will make will depend on not just expected value of the single play but what place you are in currently and the number of players left.

And probably the most difficult to estimate are the implied odds. If you do make your draw, how much money can you expect to make in later betting rounds.

Implied odds are interesting in that they can make very bad hands more playable because if you do hit, then the likelihood that your opponent believes that they are winning is higher (because the chances of such a bad hand being played rather than folded immediately should be low) and thus the probability that you can elicit more money from them is higher.

Small pairs and low suited connectors are good examples of these kinds of hands. Your pre-flop chance of winning with a pair of 2's on a full table is pretty low. But if the flop is 2-K-A, you will likely get a lot of action.

Glad someone mentioned this. A 52 card deck with 3 Aces showing means there is only 1 Ace remaining (either in hand or deck).

Future cards have significant impact on odds and betting.

Love Dask. Very robust and therefore very easy to get wrong. When you need a longer term solution that uses Dask, it pays to architect things well, in advance vs on the fly in a sandbox.

I do right now see Google Workspace being used as the primary goto for office docs and email at a very large company. It’s happening.

O365 is a mess, with Excel online I can’t even create a named range, something so basic that has been in Google Sheets since day one. As an example.

Until it it fails, and the backing CF errors and won’t resolve itself for over 24rs. Bit twice, never again with Copilot. Good idea they had, just shaky foundation.

CF = Cloud Formation?

Simply the best cloud service from any of the three big CSP’s bar none. The day AWS supports this more out of the box on Lambda (no, I will not use your required base image or signatures) will be the day containers and serverless become one (like it is already on GCP).

Fly.io isn't one of the "three big CSP's" but they are awesome.

I did the following, and seeing others who did not I don’t know how they manage when older.

Have kids, while you are young. Your body will be able to do all the fun things along side them without worry about a bad back or something else.

Don’t worry about career progression, worry instead about adding value to yourself that transcends (think education, various employment and domain knowledge in various industries).

Have work life balance, which maybe means working at places (think public services or health care) so you can spend time doing the things you enjoy, which very well may be moonlighting on tech that is 100% your IP (to each their own)

Get a house, they never get cheaper overtime.

Then when you are in your mid 40’s and your kids are moving out you can quickly catch up in no time at all, because remember, you have been building skills and a network that are now in bat shit crazy demand.

Knowingly is the key word here. The physical world is much easier to know and account for in engineering. Not so much for digital which is why security is a system of defense in depth via layers and nothing ever is 100% secure.

Exactly something everyone should try. It can give you a lot of insight if those future plans are really all that interesting and rewarding if you start doing it now while you are alive and young.

True, but is that tuna sandwich really tuna?

If it tastes good I couldn't care less what it's made of.

The insurance is a joke. I’ve seen requirements from companies that we want to do professional services for that require us to carry $5mil in cyber insurance, but nothing at all mentioned as to requirements on security governance and or policies/procedures.

Nothing will change until government regulates it. Same with auto, airlines and rail. They did not make their products and services safer by choice, they were regulated to do so.