"X increased exponentially in the past, therefore it will increase exponentially in the same way in the future" is fallacious. There is nothing guaranteeing indefinite uncapped growth in capabilities of LLMs. An exponential curve and a sigmoidal curve look the same until a certain point.

Yeah, it is a pretty good bet that any real process that produces something that looks like an exponential curve over time is the early phase of a sigmoid curve, because all real processes have constraints.

And if we apply the 80/20 rule, feels like we're at about 50-75% right now. So we're almost getting close to done with the easy parts. Then come the hard parts.