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You comically self contradict yourself. If it was lack of ideas to invest in that drove holding of cash at negative interest rates, then what stops the european from just buying us stocks? US collapse is inevitable, until its NOT…


I'm sorry this is happening to you and I know all too well how distressing it is to be a compassionate onlooker in an event like this.

Something similar (although likely less severe) happened to my wife in a not too distant past. More or less from one day to the next she started feeling very very unsafe, thought people were after her and conspiring to take away our child. She started writing protective symbols on the walls and doors of our house and felt she was talking to ghosts. I would find her yelling at passersby from our flat window. No one in her life, including me, felt like a safe person anymore.

To me it felt like this foreign power had invaded our life and started ripping everything to shreds. I honestly have never been so stressed in my life.

Luckily we did find our way out of it. My wife was on ADHD medication at the time (dexamfetamine) and we had been going through a rough time our marriage. Covid had just happened and we had a 3yo son. I think by the time she started developing delusions she probably hadn't slept well for months.

Her mother came to live with us for a couple of weeks, we stopped the dexamfetamine and we focused on just making our life as low stress and loving as possible.

I am honestly so grateful that we managed to navigate our way out of this together and that we are fine now. I can't give you much by way of advice. The position you are in is unfair and whatever you do to help your friend is commendable.

One thing I realized is that once the human mind is stressed enough it becomes a sort of runaway nuclear reactor, stuck in a cycle of every more stressful thoughts. The kind of behaviors you will see in that situation are hard to witness, and the best thing you can do as a friend is to provide safety, even when the other person sees the opposite. Living together with this person might not be a workable or safe situation for you or for him, and unfair as it might be you might end up in a position where you have to make this call. Your friend might see this as a betrayal. Be compassionate to yourself and your friend in this moment. Know you are trying to make the best out of an impossible situation. Understand you are not in control and that you are afraid to do the wrong thing and that the fact that you feel this way is what makes you a good friend. Best of luck!


Aah so this is how we got the medieval version of still D.R.E.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L1Uvr5v8IOE


This would surely benefit from some comparative analysis of wikipedia scrubbing prior to previous vp picks to establish wether it is a good indicator


> La A note to follow sol


IN many ways this is just another perspective on the need for taking calculated risks. I think this becomes even more interesting when you add the factor time into it. I usually play 3+2 type games where each player gets 3 minutes on the clock plus 2 for each additional move. In this kind of setup i've found that playing more risky aggressive moves on the one hand exposes you to make blunders, but it also gives you the initiative and causes the opposing player to spend more compute time checking possible variations.


My son was diagnosed with diabetes about 4 weeks ago. The first two weeks we were measuring him through fingersticks multiple times daily. Now we have the cgm it has become so much easier to manage his condition.

The interesting thing to observe is to see in real time the metabolic spectrum of the foods we consume. Liquid sugars cause glucose spikes within 6 minutes. Solid carbs 30-120 minutes depending on carb complexity etc. Proteins 3h+. Fats can be six hours or more.

The thing is there are a variety of insulins available, some of which are rapid acting and others act more slowly. So to keep my son in range with multiple daily injections you are playing this game of giving him the right mix of foods where his carb digestion matches the profile of his rapid acting insulin.

Pizza is an interesting case study. It is by far the most carb rich deal we've tried and it is almost impossible to manage. With so many carbs it's hard to get the insulin dosage right, and once he is high, once he is coming down from that the digestion of the fats kicks in and he remains high through the night.

I think it would be a great thing for people to wear even just for a couple of weeks.


Ive just finished The Most Secret Memory of Men by Mohamed Mbougar Sarr. I cannot praise it highly enough.


We have a no ipad policy around our house. I have khan academy kids on my phone and i use this in the rare occasions my son really needs to be kept busy for a while. We even stopped tv entirely for a while. Made the house a much calmer place.

You see, screens are really great at capturing kids attention and it will give you a moment of peace, but you pay the price the moment you want to turn the tv off to leave the house/eat dinner.

The worst part of it is that screens allow you to be emotionally quite detached from each other.

I think the educational value of an ipad is also very much exagerated. Learning for young children is really a full body experience and i dont think an ipad is a value add until much later in life (possibly never).

That said, parenting is not something you figure out before you start really. Kids will grow, you will grow and the balance will constantly shift. The most important thing is giving your children plenty of thoughtful attention throughout life..


This skepticism absolutely baffles me. Have you been using gpt-4? To unlock gpt for real you have to be careful to prompt it correctly and find a way to improve the feedback loop for improving code. It is only a matter of time until tools arrive that integrate this into your development environment and give it access to test/console output such that it can suggest code and iterate over the result. It's not perfect yet, but I'm seriously feeling the nature of our work will change fundamentally over two years already.


So... nothing changes. It will be the tool for which you will need to manually construct prompts and clean up output (including imagined non-existent APIs).

The availability of a button inside an IDE doesn't make this a fundamental change in how we work


I don’t know, I feel like it really does change how we can interact with a computer.

It feels like we are headed to a world where we can interact with a computer much more like they do in Star Trek; you ask the computer to do something using plain English, and then keep giving it refinements until you get what you want. Along the way, it is going to keep getting better and better and doing the common things asked, and will only need refinements for doing new things. Humans will get better at giving those refinements as the AI gets better at responding to them.

It is already incredibly good for being such a new technology, and will continue to rapidly improve.


The step up in accuracy from one shot solutions to iterative ones is large.


If the button can do, let's say, half or more of the work for you when you press it, you're lying to yourself if you think it won't change anything.


Nothing changes the same way that there is no difference between writing software in assembly and writing it in python.


It is so far ahead of even what the best IDEs do. For one, I have not seen GPT4 ever use non existent APIs. You don't need to carefully construct prompts. It tolerates typos to a good extent. You can just type a rough description and the output won't need cleaning manually. You might need to reiterate it to focus on some thing (like remove all heap allocations and focus on performance).


I've seen it use non existent APIs a lot. Working on a project that uses a dialect of python it told me it knew (Starlark) was like pulling teeth. It would tell me to use a python feature Starlark didn't have, I'd ask it to rewrite it without using that specific feature and it would with another feature Starlark didn't have access to, so I'd ask it to write the solution using neither and it would just give me the first solution again.


> For one, I have not seen GPT4 ever use non existent APIs.

Have you asked it to use any API that appeared after September 2021 (that's the cut off date for its data)?

Have you asked it to write code in less popular languages (e.g. Elixir)?

Have you asked it to write code for less popular or unavailable APIs (smart TV integrations)?


Yeah it was basically useless for an Elixir project I was working on. That will probably change at some point I’m sure.


I have used it to write Nim and Zig code (both not too popular languages).

I also asked it to write using non existent but plausible sounding APIs, and it flat out says "As of my knowledge cutoff in September 2021, I have no knowledge ...."

Ae you talking about GPT4 or the default ChatGPT?


I've seen similar claims about GPT 3.5 and Copilot, so I won't hold my breath.

To quote GPT-4 paper:

"GPT-4 generally lacks knowledge of events that have occurred after the vast majority of its pre-training data cuts off in September 202110, and does not learn from its experience. It can sometimes make simple reasoning errors which do not seem to comport with competence across so many domains, or be overly gullible in accepting obviously false statements from a user. It can fail at hard problems the same way humans do, such as introducing security vulnerabilities into code it produces.

GPT-4 can also be confidently wrong in its predictions, not taking care to double-check work when it’s likely to make a mistake".

> I also asked it to write using non existent but plausible sounding APIs, and it flat out says "As of my knowledge cutoff

Ask it to write a deep integration with Samsung TV or Google Cast. My bet is that it will imagine non-existent APIs (as those APIs are partly unpopular and partly closed under NDAs)


How do you know GPT4's cut off date...? I mean it says that, but it can totally be it "learned" its (supposed) cut off date from the GPT3.5 output all over the internet, right?


> How do you know GPT4's cut off date...?

"GPT-4 generally lacks knowledge of events that have occurred after the vast majority of its pre-training data cuts off in September 202110, and does not learn from its experience."

GPT-4 paper, page 10: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.08774.pdf


The model repeats it all the time "As of my knowledge cutoff date"


Yes, and this fact doesn't tell me anything, as I know LLM is completely capable to say things that aren't true.


That claim doesn't come from ChatGPT, it comes from OpenAI themselves.


Is not skepticism, it's curbed optimism.

I don't feel that my job is at risk of disappearing. Instead I think we'll be using LLMs as tools to do our job better.


I think it's safe to assume anyone trying to criticize chatGPT who has access to gpt4 would specify that their attempts are using even the latest and greatest. The disclosure is in the interest of their core argument.

Therefore the inverse can be safely inferred by nondisclosure.


"You're holding it wrong"


There’s a difference between the iPhone “you’re holding it wrong” argument and not using a tool correctly. If you try to hammer a screw, it may enter the wood but that doesn’t mean it’s the correct way to use it.


I am working on this. Broke so have to do odd GPT jobs from Upwork to make ends meet so paused on development. But the front end stuff works. At least as far as skipping copy paste.


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