which part of "not only" and "but thrive" weren't relevant to his point?
We've always known that babies need nutrition, but knowledge of the role of the gut microbiome, how to develop it and ensure it is healthy is relatively new.
Oh, the gut biome! Dang, I thought it was magic spirits that caused the benefit of nutrition. Thanks Mr Gates for explaining to everyone that it was the gut's micro biome!
OK, now you're being deliberately obtuse. The impact of the type and capacity of the gut biome is relatively new research.
The impact of having caeserian delivery on an infant's initial gut biome is relatively new knowledge, which is leading to changes in healthcare delivery for child health.
Maintaining good gut biome health is also still being researched, as well as what actually is a good gut biome. Whether it is dependent on different locations, or diets and what are the side effects.
This is not just "good food is good for you" research that the Gates Foundation is funding.
It's fundamental basic research that pharma development is not focused on delivering that will lead to better health worldwide.
I want to agree, but whatever they are doing is working incredibly well so far. The results I get from cursor outweigh what I can get from Copilot by orders of magnitude. Maybe long term there's no moat, but you'd think if there were no moat now the folks at Microsoft would be able to compete.
This is something that I think Copilot is working on fixing actively. I think that they were focused on Agent mode previously, so put less effort into the autocomplete functionality but they are hearing more and more that this is somewhere they need to focus.
Finding and investing in brand new businesses trying to quickly grow to hundreds of millions in revenue on reasonable terms in a highly competitive world is insanely difficult...Why would it not be? It cannot be any other way.
Is Paul Krugman ever correct about predictions? The only two I know from him are his famous prediction about the internet, that "by 2005, it would become clear that the Internet's effect on the economy is no greater than the fax machine's" and his child-like theory that two countries with McDonald's wouldn't go to war with one another.
Is there any value in listening to a man who is consistently wrong? Did he get something profoundly correct that I just never learned of?
This is an ad hominem attack in the sense that PK has laid out the logic underlying his statement here. He is not asking that you are to trust his point based solely on his say-so.
The right approach is: "This argument is dubious / incorrect / however you might want to refer to 'wrong' because X" where X could be "there's this and that proof that there -are- deals being made" or "Here is proof the Japanese DID drop bowling balls" or even a more esoteric "I don't think grousing about one-party rule and the death of US democracy is reasonable; these concerns are overblown", which feels more like a slugfest between 2 'vibes' which seems kinda silly, but, by all means, share your opinion here.
But, "Paul Krugman said it therefore what the fuck who cares?" is a logical fallacy and it should have no place here on HN.
Famous according to who? I would judge his record as probably mixed, like most predictions ("predictions are hard, especially about the future."*) Otherwise picking stocks would do better than random chance.
One could be wrong despite the right reasoning or right for the wrong reasons.
And yet, at some level, I agree with you. It's natural to weight what other people say by perception of their prior predictions. I have a similar reaction to Larry Kudlow or Jim Cramer: if one of them told me the sky was blue, I would have to go outside and double check.
Thinking about it some more, I think I can reconcile the difference by looking at the reasoning versus looking at the result. Like poker: you can make the right move and still lose, or make the wrong move and still win.
To bring that back to the current topic: Trump may yet escape causing a recession, but the reasoning for "this tariff war is a terrible idea" has thus far struck me as a lot more coherent than the reasoning for "this tariff war will lead to prosperity"
* funny enough, after writing this whole spiel, I looked it up to see if I got the Yogi Berra quote right (I didn't), but what did I find? An article about this exact topic (Krugman's predictions): https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/12/predict...
You can do that: Life is too short to do a whole bunch of research just to check anything you hear, so you have to judge statements using known imprecise and dangerously oversimplified mechanisms such as 'well, this guy has been wrong so often, lets just assume also wrong here'. But _if_ you do that, you should know you're using really bad guidelines, and you should definitely NOT spread that around and start using it as a logical argument. You, personally, aren't going to bother checking the truth of a statement if it comes from a source you consider exceedingly dubious. Fine. But don't tell others it's a load of horsepuckey because X said it. At best, state that X's personal assurances it is true aren't worth anything.
The right move would be to not click it on HN and not comment on it. If you care enough to comment, why not just check the statements or argue based on them?
He was consistently right during the Great Financial Crisis. That the "grownups" who cut their teeth in the 70s, a supply side recession, were applying the wrong lessons to the GFC, a demand side recession. Europe kept trying and failing to austerity its way to growth. The Republicans shrieked the same, and cost us a perfect opportunity to improve infrastructure basically "for free" as investors paid for safety, i.e. borrowing money was free (recall that in Switzerland rates not only went zero but negative).
Also Hungary's Fidesz basically spelling the end of their democracy.
Also that the euro is a straitjacket: tying together monetary policy in the absence of shared responsibility is a bad thing. Germany didn't want to bail out profligate Greece, Portugal, etc. Meanwhile it had benefited from the euro being weaker than it would have been without them (making German exports more attractive). In fact, shades of today (with respect to the tariff circus): Germany said, basically, "well everyone should be responsible enough to have a trade surplus", which is of course mathematically impossible because, and this is another one that stuck with me, my spending is your income and your spending is my income.
Incidentally this is why businessmen's experience is of little value to being president. Laying off a division doesn't solve anything in macroeconomic-land.
You are referring to a different Times columnist, writing 4 years before Krugman worked for the Times.
"In 1996, columnist Thomas Friedman came up with what is known as the Golden Arches Theory of Conflict Prevention, the notion that no two countries with McDonald's franchises have ever gone to war with each other. "
"So I've had this thesis for a long time and came here to Hamburger University at McDonald's headquarters to finally test it out. The thesis is this: No two countries that both have a McDonald's have ever fought a war against each other."
Krugman is a Nobel-prize winning economist. You're referencing Thomas Friedman, who was a reasonably successful journalist before breaking into the opinion game and laying down some infamous stinkers.
He was predicting the Biden post covid economic policy was sensible and inflation would come down without there being a recession when a lot of others, especially Republicans were saying it would be a disaster in various ways.
What a strange set of ideas presented in such a small sentence fragment.
* Very few people demonize gun ownership. They just want some laws preventing criminals from owning guns.
* Guns are very easy to obtain, the "arms race" is a trip to the local sporting goods store. Sure, the weapon may not be super tacti-cool with a bunch of skulls and shit, but I'm pretty sure that even without all the virtue signalling decals it does the primary job just fine.
Do you think those that have been opposed to current gun laws would be nearly as proficient at the use of their newly acquired weapon as opposed to those that have been collecting them for years?
This just made up militia will be woefully untrained to handle anything. At least those that have their meeting in the woods practice to whatever extent they do, but that would be so much more than this recent trip to the sporting goods store.
Whether you want to quibble over the words demonize, there are a lot of people that do not interpret the constitution to mean that just any ol' body can own a gun to the extent we allow today. The well regulated militia is part of that amendment, and gets left out quite conveniently. The local police departments are closer to the idea of a well regulated militia. The national guard are even closer of a match to me. The guys that run around in the woods believe they are fulfilling that role, but nobody really thinks they are well regulated other than whatever rules they choose to operate.
Personally, I do not think that what we have today with the NRA and what not is what the framers had in mind. So you complain about demonizing being wrong and clearly on one end of the spectrum. I think that the NRA refusing any limits on guns is clearly the other end of that spectrum
I've taught people who had never held a gun to shoot. It takes an hour or two to get them to the point where they can get a nice grouping at a reasonable distance.
I haven't owned a gun in 20 years (it's not my style). I go shooting every 3-4 years with some gun nut buddies who have big arsenals and go shooting often. I am a better shot than many of them.
Armies have won wars while being comprised mostly of conscripted people who hadn't held a gun prior to the conflict breaking out.
Point being - effective use of guns does not require deep proficiency nor long term regular training.
Being able to shoot a gun at a paper target in the safety of a gun range is one thing. It's a different thing to do that when it's a person in front on you. It's also a totally different thing when that person in front of you is persons plural in the form of a trained opposing force and the bullets are coming at you. It takes training to quell that fear and be able to react in a manner that does not end with you full of lead.
When I've discussed training in this thread in other comments, this is what I was considering. Not target practice. Not being able reload a weapon. Specifically about mentally holding it together to not freeze, or even loose your ability to aim at something not a paper target in a gun range.
> Being able to shoot a gun at a paper target in the safety of a gun range is one thing. It's a different thing to do that when it's a person in front on you
Sure. I’m saying that the physical condition of most “militia” members doesn’t make for a threatening force.
In any case, if America went low-burn civil war, you’d pay the drug gangs to do your dirty work. The reason that’s the 20th century playbook is it works.
> Do you think those that have been opposed to current gun laws would be nearly as proficient at the use of their newly acquired weapon
I don’t own a gun and I’m a better shot than half those militia types. The purpose of the guns isn’t to shoot them, it’s to deter. By the time it’s WACO, one side’s marksmanship isn’t really relevant.
You can have 20 assault style weapons in your gun safe, but if that's where they are they do not act as a deterrent. They are only a deterrent when they are ready to be used. The purpose of a gun is to be shot. Confusing this is just some very excessive bending of logic. The intent of the shooter is an entirely different matter. They were not manufactured and then sold/purchased just to be in a display case. That's just what someone decided to with their purchase.
In fact, If you have 20 assault rifles in your safe you are a target for 20 or so revolutionaries. Oligarchs aside, most people of the hoarding political persuasion mistrust others and couldn't social engineer their way out of a paper bag.
>* Very few people demonize gun ownership. They just want some laws preventing criminals from owning guns.
Don't gaslight us. Democrats have been pushing civilian disarmament HARD recently.
Restricted magazine sizes, requiring all transfers to go through a FFL, basic features bans, permits to purchase, restricting ammo purchases to FFLs raising prices, and now repeated attempts at semi-auto bans.
This isn't focused on criminals, it's trying to discourage firearm ownership in general. When states ban the federal government marksmanship program from shipping firearms to civilians AFTER they have already been background checked by a federal agency it's clear there is no attempt to stop criminals.
The courts are a bit split on this. Recently in illinois a judge found an illegal immigrant is not a prohibited person if they meet some standard of community ties/integration, although I've totally forgotten what criteria the judge used.
Remember that the McDonald case incorporated the second amendment to the states so the judges have to decide these sorts of questions for people who are out of status.
I mean criminals: people convicted of a crime for which one of the punishments is revocation of gun ownership rights.
The important word here is convicted. As we were all taught in elementary school - there is a process required by the constitution in which a person goes to a special meeting (called a trial) where a whole bunch of people examine evidence and ask a lot of questions about that evidence to determine if a person is a criminal. If the decisions is they are a criminal, then they have been convicted. HTH!
You do not need to be convicted, you do not even need to be charged.
Since this is a hot topic, look at Abrego Garcia. His wife filed a restraining order. The initial order was slightly different than the temporary order 3 days later, which added one thing -- surrendering any firearms (this is bog standard, they do this in Maryland even for citizens). No matter that she did not even bother to show up for the adversarial final order, so he had his gun rights taken totally ex-parte without even a criminal charge or a fully adjudicated civil order nor any chance to face his accuser wife. Even david lettermen had his gun rights temporarily revoked because a woman in another state claimed he was harassing through her TV via secret messages in his television program [].
But that's not all, you can totally have gun rights taken away without any civil or criminal process. If you use illegal drugs, you cannot own weapons either, that is established without any due process to decide if you use or not, simply putting down you use marijuana on a 4473 will block a sale as will simply owning a marijuana card whether you use marijuana or not.
This is exactly my point, and what I've been driving at in this thread.
This could not possibly be a concern based on abrogation of due process - because there have been many similar due process violations concerning firearms, and I've never seen a single article submitted here about those.
Frankly, I don't see how immigration is any more relevant to this site than civil rights.
first knee jerk type answer is that there are a lot of people in the tech industry that are here on some sort of visa and are not citizens which means that they very much are subject to any changes to immigration enforcement.
I have no deep admiration for judges, but the motivation for this seems deeply ideological, and I don't see a bright future where judges are arrested by the Gestapo based on ideological differences.
A judge literally helped a suspect hide from federal law enforcement. How can you be serious? Judges are supposed to up hold the law not find loopholes for people they like.
Having an algorithm determine risk seems less like a method for correctly identifying risk and more like a method for offloading responsibility for poor decisions into a faceless, nameless entity which cannot be held accountable.
> And I discovered the pseudo social network that I’d once found cringe is actually full of smart people—who crop up if I’m willing to spend a bit of extra time sharing my writing with them.
Without some heavy sourcing, I am incredibly hesitant to believe this.
Are you hesitant to believe that there are smart people using LinkedIn, or are you hesitant to believe that they will take the time to engage with you when you write to them?
Glad we finally know now that babies need nutrition.