AI is optimized to solve a problem no matter what it takes. It will try to solve one problem by creating 10 more.
I think long time/term agentic AI is just snake oil at this point. AI works best if you can segment your task into 5-10 minutes chunks, including the AI generating time, correcting time and engineer review time. To put it another way, a 10 minute sync with human is necessary, otherwise it will go astray.
Then it just makes software engineering into bothering supervisor job. Yes I typed less, but I didn’t feel the thrill of doing so.
> it just makes software engineering into bothering supervisor job.
I'm pretty sure this is the entire enthusiasm from C-level for AI in a nutshell. Until AI SWE resisted being mashed into a replaceable cog job that they don't have to think/care about. AI is the magic beans that are just tantalizingly out of reach and boy do they want it.
But every version of AI for almost a century had this property, right down from the first vocoders that were going to replace entire callcenters to convolutional AI that was going to give us self-driving cars. Yes, a century, vocoders were 1930s technology, but they can essentially read the time aloud.
... except they didn't. In fact most AI tech were good for a nice demo and little else.
In some cases, really unfairly. For instance, convnet map matching doesn't work well not because it doesn't work well, but because you can't explain to humans when it won't work well. It's unpredictable, like a human. If you ask a human to map a building in heavy fog they may come back with "sorry". SLAM with lidar is "better", except no, it's a LOT worse. But when it fails it's very clear why it fails because it's a very visual algorithm. People expect of AIs that they can replace humans but that doesn't work, because people also demand AIs never say no, never fail, like the Star Trek computer (the only problem the star trek computer ever has is that it is misunderstood or follows policy too well). If you have a delivery person occasionally they will radically modify the process, or refuse to deliver. No CEO is ever going to allow an AI drone to change the process and No CEO will ever accept "no" from an AI drone. More generally, no business person seems to ever accept a 99% AI solution, and all AI solutions are 99%, or actually mostly less.
AI winters. I get the impression another one is coming, and I can feel it's going to be a cold one. But in 10 years, LLMs will be in a lot of stuff, like with every other AI winter. A lot of stuff ... but a lot less than CEOs are declaring it will be in today.
Luckily for us, technologies like SQL made similar promises (for more limited domains) and C suites couldn't be bothered to learn that stuff either.
Ultimately they are mostly just clueless, so we will either end up with legions of way shittier companies than we have today (because we let them get away with offloading a bunch of work to tools they rms int understand and accepting low quality output) or we will eventually realize the continued importance of human expertise.
Well I have been using Gemini and ChatGPT side by side for over 6 months now.
My experience is Gemini has significantly improved its UX and performs better that requires niche knowledge, think of some ancient gadgets that have been out of production for 4-5 decades. Gemini can produce reliable manuals, but ChatGPT hallucinates.
UX wise ChatGPT is still superior and for common queries it is still my go to. But for hard queries, I am team Gemini and it hasn’t failed me once
But if you take things at face value, this isn’t a case where ICE is going berserker mode. They went through investigation and obtained search warrants.
Regardless how they handle detention, the only conclusion is to send them back. Thankfully it seems swift so the workers won’t endure long uncertainty.
Last but not least. One of the arguments of said investment, is to boost local employment, in exchange of other benefits, mostly tax reduction. It is a two way door
It seems to me Hyundai is at fault here, or they just outright organized this.
Koreans can come to US without visa, but that visa doesn’t allow you to work. That means no hands on work at the site. Considering the raids happening at the factory itself, I would really be surprised if they are only there to receive training by their US counterparts, which seems pretty unlikely.
As immigrants, our visa status has been tracked by day one, and constantly validated. It boggles my mind why Hyundai didn’t just pay to apply for H2B visa, to invite those workers to come here legally. Yeah it takes time and money but it is the correct thing to do
Let’s do a simple math. Assume this employee gets 5% of the company (which is super unlikely, but let’s go with it), that is 150m for what could be worth if OpenAI deal went through. 1% of that would be 1.5m.
That is still 7 figure. But this person spent 3 years in a startup, which turned out to be a unicorn and super highly successful, and he bagged a FAANG salary man pay at the end of the deal.
Basically this just proved startup model for normies are completely broken, if your goal is money, don’t join a startup
I think we would be back to historical norm, that startup will start falling behind in attracting talents.
The founders of Windsurf had already gotten their bags, they won't have to work a single day later in their life if they don't want to. The consequences will be bared by the ecosystem.
For the time being I think they are going to be OK, the labor market is employer friendly.
> if OpenAI ran this 10000 times in parallel and cherry-picked the best one
This is almost certainly the case, remember the initial o3 ARC benchmark? I could add this is probably multi-agent system as well, so the context length restriction can be bypassed.
Overall, AI good at math problems doesn't make news to me. It is already better than 99.99% of humans, now it is better than 99.999% of us. So ... ?
AI is optimized to solve a problem no matter what it takes. It will try to solve one problem by creating 10 more.
I think long time/term agentic AI is just snake oil at this point. AI works best if you can segment your task into 5-10 minutes chunks, including the AI generating time, correcting time and engineer review time. To put it another way, a 10 minute sync with human is necessary, otherwise it will go astray.
Then it just makes software engineering into bothering supervisor job. Yes I typed less, but I didn’t feel the thrill of doing so.
reply