I understand the temptation to Streisand this, but for the love of, please don't. S1/2 were the best show I've seen on TV. It would be a crime against good taste.

> He hasn't kept ahead of the destruction of the dollar very well.

You can't price dollars in gold to measure value. Gold doesn't measure value better than the dollar at any point in time, let alone over time. Just use the price index for one currency, or the relative price indexes across currencies.

I broadly agree with you, however: during the classic gold standard years, gold did have a pretty stable purchasing power (as eg measured by your favourite inflation index) in the long run.

However, since the world largely went off the gold standard, the purchasing power of gold has been a lot more volatile.

Suits in agriculture don't drive the combine either, a farmer does. The other 99% of pre-automation farmers went on to other jobs. They happened to be better jobs than farming, but that's not necessarily always the case.

> Suits in agriculture don't drive the combine either, a farmer does.

Advanced RTK based positioning systems have been in Ag for a long time now, so increasingly the farmer doesnt drive either

> could we say it’s beyond AGI at least in cybersecurity?

AGI is like the Holy Grail. Either in the Arthurian Hero's Journey sense, or in the sense of having been a myth all along.

It’s true I misspoke. What I mean is - is this then a form of localised super intelligent tool for cybersecurity ?

Same background as you, and same exact experience as you. Opus and Gemini have not come close to Codex for C++ work. I also run exclusively on xhigh. Its handling of complexity is unmatched.

At least until next week when Mythos and GPT 6 throw it all up in the air again.

Yep, I think the lede might be buried here and we're probably cooked (assuming you mean SWEs, but the writing has been on the wall for 4 months.)

I guess I'm still excited. What's my new profession going to be? Longer term, are we going to solve diseases and aging? Or are the ranks going to thin from 10B to 10000 trillionaires and world-scale con-artist misanthropes plus their concubines?

Your new profession will be attempting to find enough gig work to eat. You will also be competing with self-driving taxis, so there's that as well.

I need to start SaaS for getting people to start doing lunges and squats so they can carry others around on their back, I need a founding engineer, a founding marketer, and 100m hard currency.

If wealth becomes too captured at the top, the working class become unable to be profitably exploited - squeezing blood from a stone.

When that happens, the ultra wealthy dynasties begin turning on each other. Happens frequently throughout history - WWI the last example.

Your options become choosing a trillionaire to swear fealty to and fight in their wars hoping your side wins, or I guess trying to walk away and scrape out a living somewhere not worth paying attention to.

Or, I suppose, revolution, but the last one with persistent success was led by Mao and required throwing literally millions of peasants against walls of rifles. Not sure it'd work against drones.

There's a joke in here somewhere, I just don't know where.

Meta

I kind of think that these threads are destined to fossilize quickly. Most every syllogism about LLMs from 2024 looks quaint now.

A more interesting question is whether there's really a future for running a coding agent on a non-highest setting. I haven't seen anything near "Shall I implement it? No" in quite a while.

Unless perhaps the highest-tier accounts go from $200 to $20K/mo.

> I still haven't found one to equal Railroad Tycoon 3, which has this kind of neat reactive diffusion field pricing engine.

My feelings exactly. I still play it regularly for this reason alone. A really amazing game under the hood.

The Rhodes Unfinished scenario is probably my favorite. On the highest-difficulty level, it starts out as a hard map, then becomes an insatiable resource grab. By the end you're building vanity suspension bridges over chasms and digging tunnels the width of Kilimanjaro.

I think AI "slop" will improve medical diagnoses dramatically. Let's assume for a second that the first specialist did not graduate at the top of their class.

The year is 2030, when LLMs are more pervasive. The first specialist now asks you to wait, heads into the other room and double-checks their ET diagnosis with AI. Doing so has become standard practice to avoid malpractice suits. The model persuades them to diagnose PV, avoiding a Type-II error.

But let's say the model gets it wrong too. You eventually visit the second specialist, who did graduate at the top of their class. The model says ET, but the specialist is smart enough to tell that the model is wrong. There is some risk that the second specialist takes the CYA route, but I'd expect them not to. They diagnose PV, avoiding a Type-I error.