(Assuming that LLM does indeed multiply productivity)
We are likely in for some rough days, as it's much easier to just fire people and maintain the same level of productivity. Musk (arguably) did that with Twitter, even before this started. I was impacted by a post-COVID layoff, myself.
But do you think that once that has leveled out a bit, the bandwidth/market bottleneck you referenced will be identified as the new bottleneck[0]? Like, new businesses will launch, or existing companies will identify new growth areas that they did not have the capacity to move into.
I don't know how to respond to your second paragraph. Looking in that direction is a bit too overwhelming.
[0] I think this was always the problem, not developer productivity
I said this in the last Ed Zitron article too, but it's more than just having an axe or grind or acting in bad faith (though those are both true as well). He's a completely standard example of audience capture: there's huge demand right now for "AI is a scam" takes, fulfilling that demand is how he makes his living, and he can't abandon it without losing his audience no matter what the facts on the ground do. All he can do is pivot explanations whenever the old ones get empirically falsified.
I don't understand his audience still being in denial about what is coming. There may not be a job apocalypse but there is a decent chance tough times are ahead. Eventually, his audience may turn into outright Luddites. If that happens I sort of hope they don't stop at data centers/AI and go for the whole project of the Internet.
The audience feels threatened. Reading anti-AI hot takes is comforting when you’re afraid it’s going to take your job.
There is a lot of hype right now about AGI destroying the economy, replacing workers, or even ending the world. Companies are embellishing as they run up to IPO. But there’s a lot of unhealthy counter-beliefs trying to take it the opposite extreme. Keeping up with AI news is about avoiding the hype monsters at either end of the spectrum.
Yeah I don't disagree with him on a lot of the substance, but it's more about the tone of his writing (there's like 20+ exclamation marks in that article). Listening to his podcast, he is even more insufferable. It just has a feeling of "preaching to the choir", and as the parent commenter stated, it gives you a feeling that he is following where the wind is blowing.
It's only a feeling that I have, but I think that some folks live in a scarcity mindset, where they are only barely holding on to what they have. Note that this does not actually have to be their lived reality - you can be rich and think this way. Trying to adjust the system to "give more" to other people means less available to them. Sort of a zero-sum perspective on the world. If someone else gains, that means I lose.
This logic is fundamentally flawed. Pointing this out to people (often in strong language) makes them defensive. This creates the perfect combination to get people to vote against their best interests.
It's not about "being progressive" or "elite". It's about playing to the fears of people who are already fearful.
When I first took creatine from an Amazon dealer I had gut problems. I later bought a "micronized" creatine (similar to https://bulevip.com/es/3418-optimum-nutrition-creatina-powde...) and did not experience any gut problems. Taking the same product now for 3 years. Inbetween I used some other variant from time to time and have the theory that some vendors sell a not clean product that interferes with your gut.
It does that to me, on occasion. It's usually due to taking too high a dose at once and/or taking it in combination with caffeine. Now, it's not a guarantee that those conditions mean I'll get some gastrointestinal discomfort, but they certainly increase the likelihood.
I take 5mg a day with no side effects. I think this and dietary fiber are probably the only supplements worth taking. I have yet to find another supplement that has any noticeable effect but I’m happy to try if people have recommendations.
IMO The best supplements to any lifestyle are
* 2-3 days a week strength training
* 1-2 days a week of cardio
* Good sleep schedule
* creatine
* dietary fiber
* positive attitude even if you have to fake it some days (this is the hardest supplement imo)
I agree and I do all that as well. I started with the creatine a few years ago and have never had any issues which is why I was wondering if, for the people who experience them, the amount causes the stomach issues or the brand or just the creatine of any kind.
Yes I definitely have heard from others that they don’t agree with the cheap creatine but like the expensive stuff isn’t that expensive. Like I think I pay like 30€ for a couple months worth. I think people really undervalue what a good strength training and cardio routine does for you. It really helps control anxiety, keep me sleeping well, and helps me focus at work, as well as have a hang out spot with other people who come regularly. And it’s like 4-5 hours a week tops. Highly recommended.
That's a good point. I also used to have problems with >10g/day, but when slowly ramping it up (and not taking it all in one dose of course), I can get to 20g/day pretty easily.
I saw a tweet where some Zoomer was roasting an "Elder Millenial" for switching devices from a mobile phone to a desktop when making a big purchase (airline tickets? I forget).
I didn't feel like wading into that argument (what's the point? like spitting in a campfire), but... yeah.
Some folks say that we are regressing wrt technological proficiency, but it's really just that more people use technology than they used to. Regression to the mean, maybe? Is that the right expression?
This may not be relevant to the tweet, but big purchases can involve price discrimination, so making the same purchase from a different device/browser/location could get a better price.
Bit too personal for me to talk about sorry, but the therapy that worked was psybocilin (magic mushrooms) with a licensed counselor. Specifically a dosage of 5g taken in intervals + intensive guidance.
I can say that if I chose to remain too squeamish to ever try the "scheduled drugs" route, my life would have marched onward in an alternate timeline with little to no hope for recovery.
I think the population of people buying bespoke suiting is small enough that you would not want to alienate your existing customers. I agree that they should raise the prices, but I've got to think there's an aspect of a relationship there. It was hinted at, a little bit, in the article. It's not just a financial transaction, I mean.
Precisely. They're talking about a customer who has spent £700,000 ($870,000) on suits. That's a long-term relationship built on trust. Hiking your prices to manage demand might be a short-term financial bonanza, but it's disastrous in terms of reputation.
And the article suggests that's it's not even the population of everyone with a bespoke suit so much as the minority of whales who own a lot of them. There is going to be a fair number of very demanding and impatient rich guys in that group.
You can assume they'd rather be constructing new clothes, rather than doing alterations. You can also assume that there is some amount of their previous customer base who aren't interested in restarting the process at 0 with creating custom patterns, etc.
It's quite possible that the lasting effects are more dramatic, as this plays out over time and we move increasingly towards casual dress.
> You can assume they'd rather be constructing new clothes, rather than doing alterations
Thankfully, the free hand of the market provides a solution uniquely tailored to this kind of problem - just raise the price for the adjustments to a point where it's easier and cheaper if you just buy a new suit. In fact, if we are talking about huge weight loss I'm not even sure how the "adjustment" would be any less time-consuming than starting from scratch.
"The cost of alterations is an economically reasonable risk: the above would come in at £1,600 with Terry when they would need £5,000 to 7,000 for a replacement."
Fifteen years older?! You think that woman looks 78? To me I'd put her in her mid-60s. She's 63. She looks like a 63 year old.
I think part of the problem of this talk is that it introduces the fact that older people/people with disabilities are judged on their appearances instead of their capabilities (which, with respect, you have just demonstrated). Then the talk sortof goes off into a "how to age gracefully" direction and abandons that original line of thinking (disclaimer, I only watched the first 30 minutes so far).
I definitely would be interested in addressing the first issue because, as they say, everyone becomes a old and/or disabled (unless like Tom Petty, you're dead).
Hey can you help me understand what you mean? There's an entry about "Hardware Root of Trust" in that document, but I don't see how that means Apple is avoiding stating, "we can't access your data" - the doc says it's not exportable.
But do you think that once that has leveled out a bit, the bandwidth/market bottleneck you referenced will be identified as the new bottleneck[0]? Like, new businesses will launch, or existing companies will identify new growth areas that they did not have the capacity to move into.
I don't know how to respond to your second paragraph. Looking in that direction is a bit too overwhelming.
[0] I think this was always the problem, not developer productivity
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