I have to admit that the objective and historical parts of your analysis are completely correct and well researched, even though I totally disagree with you about the subjective merits and morality of the whole thing. Kudos.
US unipolar hegemony has averted an all-out war, but it has also been very bloody, or at least immiserating, for people at its periphery.
Multipolarity doesn't imply we go back to the 1910s. The idea would be to strengthen multilateral institutions that put a check on things like the World Wars.
Humans are pretty much the same as they were in the 1910s, or the entire history before.
If there is anything that keeps us from tearing each other's throats out, it is a) democracy, which in most countries makes going into a war of aggression somewhat harder (I know, the US is a huge exception, but Trump I. was partially elected on the basis of Clinton being perceived as a war hawk), and b) the intuition that weapons are now so destructive that there is nothing to win, except scorched earth.
Still that didn't stop Putin from launching his war; miscalculation such as his ("the enemy is a paper tiger and will fold immediately") is very possible even today.
IIRC the same delusion led Saddam to invade Iran in 1980.
>Even if the US and China were at parity in AI systems, it seems likely that China could direct more talent, capital, and focus to military applications of the technology. Combined with its large industrial base and military-strategic advantages, this could help China take a commanding lead on the global stage, not just for AI but for everything.
China spends 1.5% of its GDP on its military. The US spends 3.5%. I get that the two countries are engaged in competition for dominance, but why is China the bigger threat here?
Also, there are a great deal of groups and institutions out there that are pushing for more diplomacy, more cooperation, and a ratcheting down of tensions. If Dario is going to get political anyway, why not go that route?
It's also funny that there's a scary implication "China could do XYZ and focus on military applications" when Anthropic and Palantir teamed up last year to offer Claude models to US Defense orgs
"In a Monday note, strategists Joana Freire and Stephen Jen calculated that the greenback accounted for about two-thirds of total global reserves in 2003, then 55% by 2021, and 47% last year."
You can make the argument that the decline of this number will be a lot slower than 2021-2022 going forward, or that it will perhaps bottom out at a relatively high number. But the trend is there.
The World Uyghur Congress is not some politically neutral group made up of concerned immigrants and activists. It has US state backing and intelligence connections.
Whether you are convinced by the allegations they have made against the Chinese government or not, it's not inaccurate to call it a political entity. Its name is a bit misleading and makes one think that it represents members of this ethnic group around the world.
