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>but how do folks distinguish tinfoil hat conspiracy from legitimate speculation?

Plausibility and evidence, for which there's plenty in this case.

Although it seems less likely to me that Western apps have backdoors and more likely that Western law enforcement and intelligence have free access to the data, but it's probably both.




> Plausibility and evidence, for which there's plenty in this case.

I don't know i agree. The article didn't cite any evidence, and Iran would have lots of motivation to lie here. E.g. it could be a face saving move, trying to shift blame for the war going badly from a failing military to being the fault of traitors who installed whatsapp. It could be a ploy to prevent citizens from having e2e encrypted comms, lest they plot a revolution (from what i understand Iran has blamed whatsapp for protests in the past). It might just be a desperate regime with a crumbling military that is out of options and willing to grasp at any straw no matter how slight.

Not to say that i think its impossible. Israel has certainly pulled off crazier things in the past, but right now we have zero evidence and lots of potential motives for Iran to make shit up.


> more likely that Western law enforcement and intelligence have free access to the data

This I have firsthand experience with and agree. Why invest effort when agencies can simply take what they want?




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