What if surgeons get replaced by better robotics hardware (more accurate cutting techniques than a human hand) and better AI software. The premise that a more experience surgeon is a lot better than a newbie surgeon holds true. How do you become an experienced surgeon? By seeing a lot of cases and knowing what to do when things don't go as planned.
What does AI do? It learns over time by seeing more and more cases.
Will it replaced a true star surgeon within the next decades? Likely not. But how many of us have access to the world's best surgeon? Or the world's top 10 or top 1000? Vast majority see one who is local and good enough (or have no choice if you land in an ER with an accident). Those are highly skilled highly trained positions earning high pay.
If you asked me a year ago I would have recommended kids to go into studying medicine and become a surgeon as that surely wouldn't be replaced by computers.
Today I am not so sure this will be a profession for the majority of cases (that don't get to see the highest of skilled) even in 10 or 15 years from now.
> Doctors have an unusually strong professional monopoly.
That won't matter. Once people find out AI/robotic solutions are better than the best human doctors, most will choose AI/robots, they will demand them. People aren't stupid.
The OP is talking about surgeons, not doctors. The two are entirely different professions; it's like conflating doctors with nurses, or doctors with medical researchers.
Will it replaced a true star surgeon within the next decades? Likely not. But how many of us have access to the world's best surgeon? Or the world's top 10 or top 1000? Vast majority see one who is local and good enough (or have no choice if you land in an ER with an accident). Those are highly skilled highly trained positions earning high pay.
If you asked me a year ago I would have recommended kids to go into studying medicine and become a surgeon as that surely wouldn't be replaced by computers.
Today I am not so sure this will be a profession for the majority of cases (that don't get to see the highest of skilled) even in 10 or 15 years from now.