ChatGPT is neither an earthquake nor a tectonic plate faultline. Along with ever improving algos in nearby domains (images, speech etc) it is a signal, of sorts, of the slowly accumulating energy that will, eventually, unleash the next phase of information technology.
It is not an accident, imho, that it is Microsoft that somehow emerges as Google's "nemesis". After all it was MS' business model that Google disrupted with mass market "freebies" such as gmail, docs etc. While "disrupting search" might be the immediate skirmish, the bigger battle is about broadly defined "AI augmented information management": who will offer it to the masses, under which business model etc.
My feeling (nowhere near a complete analysis) is that Google will lose this war even if, as it is widely assumed, it has the technical advantage. This is because it has been happily cornered in an extremely lucrative but ultimately dead-end business model. AI augmentation as part of its existing search/adtech model is a marginal and even problematic (loss making) addition, whereas as part a re-invented MS it can blow new life into its old bread-and-butter business that has been commoditized. A wildcard in all this is (as always) Apple, but whatever its eventual approach to AI, it is likely to be just another headwind for Google.
NB: I am a lifelong open source enthusiast, I have no stake or love for any of the above entities. The ideal, least dangerous, most beneficial form of AI augmentation would be as a widely available and open source digital public good.
It is not an accident, imho, that it is Microsoft that somehow emerges as Google's "nemesis". After all it was MS' business model that Google disrupted with mass market "freebies" such as gmail, docs etc. While "disrupting search" might be the immediate skirmish, the bigger battle is about broadly defined "AI augmented information management": who will offer it to the masses, under which business model etc.
My feeling (nowhere near a complete analysis) is that Google will lose this war even if, as it is widely assumed, it has the technical advantage. This is because it has been happily cornered in an extremely lucrative but ultimately dead-end business model. AI augmentation as part of its existing search/adtech model is a marginal and even problematic (loss making) addition, whereas as part a re-invented MS it can blow new life into its old bread-and-butter business that has been commoditized. A wildcard in all this is (as always) Apple, but whatever its eventual approach to AI, it is likely to be just another headwind for Google.
NB: I am a lifelong open source enthusiast, I have no stake or love for any of the above entities. The ideal, least dangerous, most beneficial form of AI augmentation would be as a widely available and open source digital public good.