If you take everything hegemonic powers say at face value, all politics and all history is utterly incomprehensible.

If you look at what NATO actually did, it’s very difficult to take them seriously. They bluff on a near constant basis, especially about Russia. But, realize they weren’t sending any troops to Ukraine because they are too arrogant to even believe their own claims. Also, Biden refused to reassure Putin that Ukraine was not invited to NATO. If they were so confident of a Russian invasion but they were still so willing to be petty and stubborn, then blood is on their hands all the same. It simply doesn’t add up.

Of course they never actually believed Iraq had WMDs either, but did that matter? If anyone knows how this works, it’s Putin. If you didn’t notice, he accused Ukraine of manufacturing WMDs in his invasion announcement speech. Does that mean he actually believes it? No. He was mocking the eternally hypocritical lying Western elites. He knows how they operate and he knows others know how they operate, and he operated accordingly.

> But, realize they weren’t sending any troops to Ukraine because they are too arrogant to even believe their own claims.

Uh, no, they pulled their troops training Ukraine’s forces out because they did believe their own claims. As they stated many times alongside saying Russia was going to invade, they were not going to commit troops to fight such an invasion (or even to evacuate their own citizens) because they have no mutual defense treaty with Ukraine and did not wish to escalate any invasion of Ukraine into a World War.

If they hadn't believed Russia would invade, their troops would have still been there when they did.

> But, realize they weren’t sending any troops to Ukraine...

I do realize that.

> ... because they are too arrogant to even believe their own claims.

No. I'm afraid you got this backwards. The NATO countries quite literally removed their troops from Ukraine instead of sending in new ones precisely because they believed that Russia is going to invade.

During an invasion if there are NATO troops in Ukraine said troops would engage with the Russian troops. This can lead to an escalatory spiral and we end up with a nuclear confrontation. This is why what little NATO troops there were in Ukraine were withdrawn.

> If you look at what NATO actually did, it’s very difficult to take them seriously.

I'm sure NATO is very worried about you not taking them seriously. What exactly are you expecting from them?

> If they were so confident of a Russian invasion but they were still so willing to be petty and stubborn, then blood is on their hands all the same.

That's twisted again. The blood is on Putin's hand and the Russian state's hand.