statistically speaking, we're almost guaranteed to be a simulation though
in case we've got a lucky 10k person around:
this guarantee comes from the believe that technology will at one time be able to simulate one human to a degree that it thinks to be real and thinks that it experiences reality.
This technology would inevitably be used to simulate billions of lives for scientific research. you're thus statistically one of these simulations, as there had been ~10 billion "real" humans to the unlimited amount of simulated ones
(this is just a fun thought experiment. don't treat your fellow humans like simulations please)
So it's not statistically speaking, it's not a guarantee, it's a belief. I'm ok with that, but please don't try to present it otherwise. I personally don't believe there'll ever be a technology able to simulate a human to the point you describe, which I think is ok to believe too and not less scientifically correct or incorrect.
I literally wrote your rebuttal in my third sentences.
My intro was just a humourous answer to the parent comment
And I'm pretty sure you're actually overestimating the required technological competency we'll need to start these simulations. Most of the actual blockers such as General intelligence, realistic physics and free thinking aren't necessary to create a program that mimics a human to a degree to be useful in a simulation. Even scale isn't necessary, as "real" interactions aren't required and the memories can be "mocked"
in case we've got a lucky 10k person around:
this guarantee comes from the believe that technology will at one time be able to simulate one human to a degree that it thinks to be real and thinks that it experiences reality. This technology would inevitably be used to simulate billions of lives for scientific research. you're thus statistically one of these simulations, as there had been ~10 billion "real" humans to the unlimited amount of simulated ones
(this is just a fun thought experiment. don't treat your fellow humans like simulations please)