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I disagree with this due to the rate of AlphaGo's progress. Consider CrazyStone which was the previous state of the art in Go computers. That program reached 5dan after many years of development and has not shown any signs of being able to reach Lee Sedol level (9dan).

In October of this year AlphaGo beat a 5dan player, bringing it into the range of CrazyStone. Only ~6 months later it beats a 9dan player which means it is now ~400 Elo higher. This means the new version would be predicted to beat the old version ~99% of the time.

Such incredible consistent progress of a problem considered somewhat intractable is notable and exciting. Imagine where this machine will be in 6 more months.



Edit: Fan Hui was only 2dan so this is even more insane.


Yes, AlphaGo's progress is amazing. I don't think there's any disagreement there :)

But I don't think you know much about Go, if you can say Fan Hui is "just" 2 dan professional. What do you reckon the strength difference is between 2p and 9p?

Nitpick: while AlphaGo today is certainly stronger than AlphaGo last October, it doesn't follow in any way from the fact that both programs beat their respective opponents. A > B, C > D, D > B, therefore C > A? By "400 ELO", no less?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Go_ranks_and_ratings#Elo-like_...

You can use that table to calculate the win probability for a 9dan player versus a 2dan player.


I rest my case.

For your info: professional ranks do not reflect strength. They are honorary and based (typically) on achievement and seniority.




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